NFL Key Numbers to Watch: Mastering the Point Spread

Key Points

• NFL point spreads are designed to handicap matchups. With spreads, bettors wager on the expected margin of victory.
• The numbers 3 and 7 are the most common NFL scoring margins.
• The hook in NFL key numbers is critical, preventing a pish and allowing for better risk management around key numbers.
• Line shopping across multiple sportsbooks ensures that bettors get favorable odds and avoid losing bets to a single half-point.

NFL Point Spreads and What Makes Them So Important

NFL is one of the most popular sports to bet on in the USA. Whether it’s the regular season, the playoffs, or the Super Bowl, there’s always plenty of action on the games. It’s also one of the main sports to bet at online, with the NFL point spread one of the top markets.

Most bettors believe that NFL lines are too sharp to make a profit. Reality is different. Most of the bets lost during the NFL season are because bettors think like fans instead of bettors. Many of them also miss the value of learning the key NFL numbers, which are the subject of this article. We’ll help bettors identify them and implement these numbers in their long-run NFL betting strategy with the goal of being more successful in the end.

Understanding NFL Point Spreads

Canadian bettors have surely heard about handicaps. An NFL point spread is the same as a handicap, designed to level the playing field between two unevenly matched teams. So, instead of picking the game winner, bettors wager on the expected margin of victory.

The NFL lines are the foundation of any NFL betting strategy. To spot value, bettors should understand the matchups and the most common NFL scoring margins, which requires mastering the NFL key numbers.

How to Bet NFL Point Spreads

Knowing how to bet NFL point spreads is crucial before beginning. This means knowing how to read the fixed odds or lines, mainly the underdog and favorite.

• The favorite is indicated by a minus sign (for example, -3). Betting on the favorite in this case means that they must win the game by 3 points or more.
• An underdog is indicated by a plus sign (e.g. +3). In this example, the underdog winning the game or losing by less than 3 points is a successful bet.

Some games may land exactly on the NFL point spread. This can be a 3-point win on a -3 spread. In this case, the game is a push, and the original wager goes back to the bettor.

What Are Key Numbers in NFL Betting?

NFL key numbers represent the most common margins of victory. While the specific breakdown varies by year, in the long term, NFL games are decided by 3 points. About 10% of all games are decided by 7 points. This makes perfect sense, as the majority of scoring in pro American football is done in 3 and 7-point increments.

In that sense, the NFL key numbers correspond to the point spreads. This makes 3 and 7 the most important key numbers in the National Football League. By learning the significance of the key numbers, bettors from Canada can spot value.

The Most Important Key Numbers: 3 and 7

The most important numbers in an NFL point spread are 3 and 7 as mentioned previously. Those are the spreads most games go by, with other numbers occurring less frequently.

NFL games are decided by 6 points in around 6% of the time. About 5% of the games are decided by 14 points. As the number climbs past 14, the values of 3 and 7 multiples are less frequent. That’s why you’ll rarely see point spreads on offer at BetPlays Canada higher than 14.

The Significance of Key Numbers in Your Betting Strategy

The NFL scoring margins aren’t just trivia. They’re the base for any profitable NFL betting strategy. As most games end with margins of 3 and 7, the difference between -2.5- and -3-point spreads is significant. While it sounds counterintuitive, in the same thought, the difference between -8 and -8.5 is minor.

Mastering the NFL key numbers allows bettors to measure risk with better precision. They can also spot value by simply looking at the odds.

Understanding “The Hook” (Half-Points)

A half-point attached to a spread is known as the hook. For example, it’s the .5 in a -3.5 line. The hook is used to eliminate the possibility of a tie in a game. In short, it guarantees a win or a loss.

When learning how to bet NFL point spreads, managing this half-point is crucial. Let’s say you pick the Titans as an underdog against the Bears at +7.5. That half-point keeps your bet safe if the Titans lose by a touchdown. In the same sense, bettors can bet the favorite at -6.5 and use the hook advantage to ensure a win if the team wins by 7.

Line Shopping Around Key Numbers

Smart bettors always shop for lines around key numbers. Comparing the NFL point spread across multiple sportsbooks, for example, BetPlays and 29Black, allows bettors to find the best possible odds.

If one sportsbook lists a team at +2.5 and the other at +3, the pick is clear. That extra half-point may be the difference between a loss and a push. Bettors should avoid settling for bad lines when key numbers are in play.

FAQ

What’s the Most Common Winning Margin in the NFL?

The most common winning margin in the NFL is precisely 3 points. Almost 30% of the games in the League end with point spreads of 3, 6, and 7, making them the key NFL numbers.

Why is 3 the Most Important Number in NFL Betting?

Three is the most important number in NFL betting because a single field-goal decides a large number of games. Since it’s a frequent outcome, a spread of -2.5 and -3.5 is massive, and a key point in any sharp NFL betting strategy.

What Happens if the Final Core Lands Exactly on the Point Spread?

This is a prime example of a push. When the NFL spread lands exactly on the line, the bet is a tie, and bettors get their wager refunded.

Did Moving the Extra Point Back Change the Key Numbers in the NFL?

Moving the extra point back had a subtle impact. The NFL went back with the extra point to the 15-yard line in 2015, resulting in kickers missing PATs more often. Three and seven remain key numbers, but the value of secondary numbers such as 6 and 14 went up.

Final Thoughts – Betting Around Key Numbers Offers Value

Mastering the NFL key numbers is a real art. It separates casual fans from sharp bettors. By learning the value of 3 and 7 as the most common NFL scoring margins, bettors from Canada can accurately review the value of each NFL point spread.

Together with this, bettors should remember to line shop for the top odds, use the hook to their advantage, and bet responsibly. By developing a strong NFL betting strategy and being disciplined, long-term success is a real possibility.