Sports Betting
How to Bet on Underdogs and Still Be Profitable Long-Term
Betting on underdogs is often seen as a risky strategy, but when approached correctly, it can be one of the most profitable long-term betting methods. Many casual bettors focus on favorites, assuming they have a higher chance of winning. However, sportsbooks often overprice favorites, creating better value on the underdog side.
A well-researched underdog betting strategy takes advantage of mispriced lines, public perception, and unexpected game dynamics. In this guide, we’ll break down why underdogs can be profitable, how to identify the right ones to bet on, and strategies to maximize returns while minimizing risk.
Why Betting on Underdogs Can Be Profitable
Many bettors shy away from underdogs, assuming favorites always have the upper hand. However, sportsbooks adjust odds based on public perception, often making underdog bets more valuable. By understanding how odds are set and how to identify profitable opportunities, betting on underdogs can become a key part of a winning strategy.
Sportsbooks Inflate Favorites’ Odds
Most recreational bettors prefer betting on favorites because they assume stronger teams will always win. Sportsbooks know this and often inflate favorite odds, making them less valuable from a betting perspective. This creates undervalued lines on underdogs, allowing smart bettors to capitalize on better payouts.
For example, if the public heavily bets on a popular NBA team at -300, the opposing underdog may be listed at +250 instead of a more accurate +200. This creates extra value for sharp bettors who understand the dynamics behind the line movement.
High Payouts Mean Fewer Wins Are Needed
Underdogs typically have higher payouts, meaning you don’t need to win as often to remain profitable.
For example:
- If you bet on favorites at -200, you need to win 67% of the time just to break even.
- If you bet on underdogs at +200, you only need to win 33% of the time to break even.
This means that even if you lose more bets than you win, you can still be profitable over time if you’re picking the right underdogs.
Market Inefficiencies Favor Underdogs
Sportsbooks struggle to properly adjust for underdogs in certain situations, leading to mispriced betting lines. This is common in:
- Games with unpredictable outcomes (e.g., divisional matchups, rivalry games)
- New or inexperienced teams (harder for sportsbooks to evaluate)
- Injuries or roster changes that shift the game dynamic
By analyzing these factors, sharp bettors can find underdogs with real chances of winning at inflated odds.
How to Identify the Best Underdog Bets
Not all underdogs offer value, and blindly betting on them can lead to long-term losses. To maximize profits, bettors should focus on key indicators that suggest an underdog has a realistic chance to win or cover the spread. Analyzing team performance, historical trends, and market movement can help pinpoint the right bets.
Look for Strong Defensive Teams
Underdogs with solid defensive units are more likely to cover the spread or pull off outright wins. A strong defense can slow down an elite offense, keep the game close, and increase upset potential.
Example: A defensive-minded NFL team getting +6.5 points against an offensive powerhouse may have a better shot at covering the spread or even winning outright.
Identify Situational Betting Opportunities
Not all underdogs are created equal. Look for games where the situation favors the underdog, such as.
- Home underdogs in primetime games (motivated by crowd energy)
- Divisional matchups (teams are more familiar with each other, reducing talent gaps)
- Favorites in letdown spots (e.g., a team coming off a huge emotional win might overlook a weaker opponent)
Track Line Movements and Betting Percentages
If heavy public money is backing a favorite, the underdog line may become inflated beyond its true value. Smart bettors watch for:
- Reverse line movement (the line shifts in favor of the underdog despite more bets being placed on the favorite)
- Sharp money backing the underdog (professional bettors moving the odds)
If the betting percentage is heavily on the favorite but the line isn’t moving, it might be a sign that sharp money is on the underdog.
Consider Coaching and Game Plan Factors
Some teams match up well against better opponents due to coaching strategy, playing style, or historical success. Coaches who excel at game planning for big matchups can make underdogs far more competitive than expected.
Example: In college football, an underdog team with an elite running game can keep the ball away from a high-powered offense, shortening the game and increasing upset chances.
Profitable Strategies for Betting on Underdogs
A well-structured betting strategy is essential when wagering on underdogs. While high payouts are tempting, a disciplined approach ensures consistency and long-term success. Whether betting against the spread, targeting moneyline underdogs, or using parlays strategically, each method has its advantages.
Bet the Spread for Consistency
Betting underdogs against the spread (ATS) is often a safer and more consistent way to profit. Even if an underdog doesn’t win outright, they can cover the spread and cash your ticket.
For example, if a +7 underdog loses by 6 points, they still cover the spread, meaning your bet is a winner. Over the course of a season, backing underdogs ATS can yield steady returns.
Take Advantage of Moneyline Underdogs in Close Matchups
Not all underdogs are extreme long shots. Sometimes, small underdogs (+120 to +180 range) offer the best value. These teams have a realistic shot at winning outright, providing higher payouts than just betting the spread.
Use Parlay and Round Robin Bets with Small Underdogs
Parlaying two or three small underdogs together can significantly boost payouts while maintaining a reasonable risk level. A round-robin strategy allows you to cover different combinations of underdogs, giving you multiple chances to profit even if one selection loses.
Look for Teams with Momentum
Underdogs coming off big wins or multiple covers may carry momentum into the next game. If an underdog has been outperforming expectations, sportsbooks might undervalue them, providing an edge for sharp bettors.
Common Mistakes to Avoid When Betting Underdogs
Even experienced bettors make mistakes when it comes to underdog betting. Some place wagers based on emotion rather than data, while others ignore important variables like injuries, fatigue, and public betting trends. Avoiding these common pitfalls can significantly improve betting performance.
Betting on Every Underdog
Not all underdogs provide value. Just because a team has high odds doesn’t mean it’s a smart bet. Always look for favorable matchups, trends, and market inefficiencies before making a wager.
Ignoring Public Betting Trends
If an underdog is receiving heavy public money, the value may already be gone. Once sportsbooks adjust the odds accordingly, the underdog loses its betting edge.
Overlooking Key Injuries or Rest Disadvantages
If an underdog is missing key players or playing a back-to-back game, they may struggle more than expected. Always check injury reports and scheduling factors before placing a bet.
Final Thoughts on Betting Underdogs for Profitability
While underdog betting is riskier than backing favorites, a smart and disciplined approach can make it highly profitable. Sportsbooks often overvalue favorites and undervalue underdogs, creating opportunities for sharp bettors to exploit mispriced odds.
By focusing on defensive teams, situational trends, line movements, and sharp money indicators, you can consistently identify underdogs with real chances of winning or covering the spread. Betting the right underdogs, rather than blindly wagering on every big-money line play, is key to long-term success.
Ultimately, the best betting strategy is one that takes advantage of market inefficiencies and hidden value. If approached carefully, underdog betting can be one of the most profitable and rewarding methods in sports betting.
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Arizona Cardinals Betting Guide 2025 – Explore the Best Arizona Cardinals Betting Line and Props for 2025
The Arizona Cardinals endured a difficult time last year. As the season ended, the team focused its efforts in improving the defensive side to erase the negative impact of each Arizona Cardinals betting line and the big point totals on the scoreboard. The offseason brought in new faces in Dalvin Tomlinson and Josh Sweat, along with one familiar face in Calais Campbell.
During the draft, the Cardinals spent the first five picks on defense. With a line that features 2024 breakout star Garret Williams, Zaven Collins, and Budda Baker, the team is stocked on talent on the defensive end. So far, the Cardinals are 2-2 to begin the new NFL season, which mostly mirrors the previous one. In this guide, we’ll show you how place an Arizona Cardinals bet in various markets and present the team’s chances going forward.
Arizona Cardinals NFC West Odds
The Arizona Cardinals currently have the longest odds to win the NFC West Division. There’s still time for the odds to change, but odds-wise, the team is almost the same position as it was last year.
- Arizona Cardinals NFC West Division Winner Odds: +1200
Source: BetPlays. Odds are subject to change.
Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl Odds
At the moment, the Arizona Cardinals betting line for the Super Bowl put the team in the middle of the list of favorites. The Cardinals are a long shot to win the Super Bowl, with the odds heavily impact by how the season progresses and if the Cardinals can tie a string of wins to reach the playoffs in a good spot.
- Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl Winner odds: +8900
Source: BetPlays. Odds are subject to change.
Arizona Cardinals Betting Line for Next Game
The Cardinals play the next game in the NFL against the Titans on October 5. They’re entering the match as the heavy favorite, with the Tennessee Titans still winless this season. The Arizona Cardinals betting line is at -475, which doesn’t bring much excitement for bettors. This is why many will explore other markets such as over under, which should provide more value than the current moneyline odds.
- Tennessee Titans vs Arizona Cardinals: Arizona favorite @ -475
Source: BetPlays. Odds are subject to change.
Arizona Cardinals Prop Bets
When it comes to Arizona Cardinals prop bets, there’s plenty to bet on. Kyler Murray leads the list of prop bets, with total passing touchdowns on offer at BetPlays. Players should also check out Kyler Murray’s MVP odds for the regular season, where he’s not among the top favorites. His dark horse odds may provide value in various statistical categories.
Arizona Cardinals Schedule 2025-2026
| Titans vs Cardinals | October 5 |
| Cardinals vs Colts | October 12 |
| Packers vs Cardinals | October 19 |
| Cardinals vs Cowboys | November 3 |
| Cardinals vs Seahawks | November 9 |
| 49ers vs Cardinals | November 16 |
| Jaguars vs Cardinals | November 23 |
| Cardinals vs Buccaneers | November 30 |
| Rams vs Cardinals | December 7 |
| Cardinals vs Texans | December 14 |
| Falcons vs Cardinals | December 21 |
| Cardinals vs Bengals | December 27 |
| Cardinals vs Rams | January 4, 2026 |
How to Bet on the Arizona Cardinals
Placing an Arizona Cardinals bet is easy. BetPlays’ intuitive interface and focus on NFL betting makes things simple for new Canadian bettors. From a single Arizona Cardinals betting line to prop bets and futures, here are the top Cardinals markets to bet on.
Arizona Cardinals Bet Line
The moneyline is the simplest of NFL bets. It’s a bet where wagers are placed on the potential winner of a match. To put things into context, we’ll take the next game against the Titans.
- Cardinals: -475
- Titans: +340
In this case, an Arizona Cardinals bet will win if the team proves its favorite status. As the favorite, the betting line requires $475 to win $100. The Titans are the underdog in this case, paying $440 on a $100 bet ($380 in profit). Moneyline betting focuses simply on the winner, without taking the total points in question.
Point Spreads
Point spreads in the NFL are determined by the points a team wins or loses by. For example, if the Cardinals are favored by over 3.5 points, they must cover the spread by winning 4 points or more. The opponent can lose by 4 points and the bet would still be a winning one.
Point Total O/U
A point total Arizona Cardinals bet refers to the total point scored in a match between the Cardinals and another team. Sportsbooks set a line, for example, 56.5 points, and bettors can predict if the total number of points scored goes over or under it.
If the points scored by both teams go over the line and a wager is placed on that outcome, it’s a winning bet. It’s the same with under. Bettors can correctly predict the lines by studying the offense and defense of the Cardinals as well as the point total in previous games. Last season, the Cardinals had an average O/U totals, varying between 48 and 53 points.
Things are looking similar this year, which is something to keep in mind as the season moves forward.
Futures
Futures are long-term bets that range from the offseason to the full season, with or without the playoffs included. A futures Arizona Cardinals betting line would be to pick the team to win its division or the Super Bowl. Future bets also include award winners such as the MVP, team win totals, and various player performance stats.
Parlays and Teasers
The largest payouts in NFL betting are often secured through parlays. Bettors can wager on several matches on a busy Sunday, predicting various winners via moneylines or teams covering the spread. Teasers are similar to parlays. The big difference is that they allow bettors to move point spreads for more favorable lines at the cost of lower odds.
Live Arizona Cardinals Betting
Live NFL betting is often the best way to bet on the exciting matches. With in-play betting, bettors get unique opportunities to bet on the game while it’s still live. Live bets make for a more immersive experience, where bettors predict the next touchdown.
It’s also a good way to hedge bets at BetPlays. For example, if a bettor picks the Titans in the upcoming game against the Cardinals, and Arizona jumps to an early lead, they could bet on Arizona live to make up for the inevitable loss.
The Champions League matchday 2 begins on Tuesday, September 30, bringing once again exciting duels from Europe’s soccer elite. In matchday 1, we saw some great duels with plenty of goals, and the second round of fixtures should deliver a pretty clear picture of the favorites and underdogs as the tournament moves forward.
Our Champions League matchday 2 betting predictions will cover all the top action on the menu this Tuesday and Wednesday. Check out the best UCL odds from matchday 2 and read our betting tips and predictions for your singles and accas.
Champions League Matchday 2 Betting Predictions Overview
All 36 teams will take the field on Tuesday and Wednesday in the UCL matchday 2. The two-day action will feature action-packed 9 matches each, with some juicy encounters on offer. The Champions League odds for the favorites are already up at BetPlays, with a variety of betting markets in store.
Our Champions League predictions remain the same as before the new season. However, that could change when matchday 2 is finished, as underdogs will be looking to surprise the favorites. Here’s a preview of all the matches that await us, with UCL betting tips to follow below.
| Tuesday, September 30 | Wednesday, October 1 |
| Atalanta vs Club Brugge | Qarabag vs FC Copenhagen |
| Kairat vs Real Madrid | Royale Union SG vs Newcastle |
| Atletico Madrid vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Arsenal vs Olympiacos |
| Bodo/Glimt vs Tottenham | Barcelona vs PSG |
| Chelsea vs Benfica | Bayer Leverkusen vs PSV |
| Galatasaray vs Liverpool | Borussia Dortmund vs Athletic Bilbao |
| Inter vs Slavia Prague | Monaco vs Manchester City |
| Marseille vs Ajax | Napoli vs Sporting CP |
| Pafos vs Bayern Munich | Villareal vs Juventus |
Top Matches to Watch on CL Matchday 2
The matchday 2 Champions League fixtures involve some big UCL games that bettors will love to wager on. Some UCL favorites such as Real Madrid shouldn’t have trouble against rookie Kairat, while Chelsea, Barcelona, and even Manchester City will be looking to snag wins against much tougher opponents.
Expert football betting predictions have chosen Barcelona vs PSG as the standout fixture for this round. Barca plays in front of the home crowd, although sadly still not at the Camp Nou. Regardless, the Catalan giant will be looking to state its champion ambitions against the reigning champ in a match riddled with injuries.
Barca will be missing Fermin Lopez, Gavi, goalkeeper Joan Garcia, and possibly Brazilian maestro Raphinha. On the other side, new Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembele is set to miss the clash with a thigh injury. Paris Saint Germain will also miss Joao Neves, Desire Doue, Marquinhos, and potentially even Vitinha and Kvaratshkelia who are down with injuries.
Despite the injuries, it’s still a star-studded clash where both sides will be aiming for a win. Our Champions League betting picks include goals on both sides with a narrow Barcelona win. Without Neves and Dembele calling the shots, PSG may struggle to organize the game from midfield. Barcelona’s midfield duo of Pedri and Frenkie de Jong can control the rhythm, and Lamine Yamal will surely play with a chip on his shoulder after narrowly missing out on the Ballon d’Or.
In another exciting match, Stamford Bridge will see the return of Jose Mourinho after some time when he visits with Benfica. His first matches with the Portuguese club left a lot to be desired. However, Mourinho is a world-class manager who plays well against big teams. Benfica has a quality squad that needs a fresh perspective, and Mourinho is the manager to provide it. Chelsea has had a rough start to the season, and we believe it’ll be another goal fest in a match that can go both ways.
Goal betting enthusiasts should also take a look at Borussia Dortmund vs Athletic Bilbao and Villareal vs Juventus. Both matches should feature goals on both sides, with tiny differences in quality affecting the outcome.
Champions League Matchday 2 Betting Predictions – Betting Odds, Favorites, and Underdogs
Champions League fixtures are always a good pick for accumulator enthusiasts. They can string together a list of betting favorites with other markets for the UCL top teams, potentially creating a lucrative acca. The best Champions League odds are at BetPlays, with favorites and underdogs already available for Canadian bettors to wager on.
Those who prefer single-betting markets can settle on one of the derbies such as Barcelona vs PSG, Chelsea vs Benfica, or even Galatasaray vs Liverpool. Stringing together different matches for the top UCL teams remains the best idea, with a combination of favorites and underdogs potentially leading to decent payouts.
As always, we advise bettors to play responsibly and do their research. The new CL format often brings a lot of surprises, which should be taken into account before reading Champions League matchday 2 predictions and tips.
Top CL Matchday 2 Betting Markets
BetPlays has a full suite of UCL betting markets with sharp odds in tow. We’ll cover some of the top ones that Canadian bettors should take a look for their singles, multiples, or accas.
- Moneyline: the simplest soccer betting market there is. With moneyline, bettors can choose the winner of one or more teams in action during matchday 2 of the Champions League.1
- Goal betting: the new Champions League format has brought more goals than ever before. This makes the goal betting market attractive for all bettors, who can bet on goals from one or both teams per halftime or fulltime.
- Totals: one of the most popular UCL betting markets, this market allows bettors to predict if the total number of goals goes over or under the line set by the bookie. The most popular options include over 2/2.5 and 3/3.5 goals.
- Handicaps: handicaps can improve the value for favorites or underdogs when there’s huge difference in quality. This market brings value to matches such as Kairat vs Real Madrid, where the Madrid side is a heavy favorite.
CL Betting In-Play Opportunities
Live CL betting remains a favorite for most Canadian bettors. It offers exciting action in real-time, where bettors must make quick decision to predict in-match events to happen as soon as the next minute.
The most popular CL live betting markets include next corner, next yellow or red card, and next player/team to score a goal. The in-play UCL odds change in accordance with the action on the pitch. Real-time CL betting tips can help bettors greatly in these situations, and features such as early payouts can save live betting slips when things aren’t going your way.
With hundreds of live football UCL betting markets at BetPlays, we strongly suggest exploring this avenue.
Final Thoughts
The Champions League matchday 2 betting predictions on our page cover the action from start to finish. There are some heavy clashes in the second round coming on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the best UCL odds already posted at BetPlays.
Our soccer betting insights should give Canadian bettors a chance to bet on the top matches and pick the best markets and lines. Similar to matchday 1, we suggest taking a look at accas, which encompass favorites and underdogs and offer top value to seasoned bettors.
Every football weekend brings with it new exciting matches. This weekend, it’s time for the Madrid derby, the first clash between Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid. This enticing match puts some of the world’s biggest soccer stars on the field and comes with plenty of exciting betting opportunities. If you’re looking to make profit on the action, this Atletico vs Real Madrid prediction guide is for you.
The top La Liga clash this weekend sees two of the best Spanish teams going at it. Atletico Madrid has had a struggling beginning to the season, while Real is firing on all cylinders. But that often means nothing in the Madrid derby. In our Atletico vs Real Madrid prediction guide, we’ll cover all the important things you need to know about and provide a tactical analysis and best bets.
- When: Saturday, September 27, 17:15 (CET)
- Where: Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid
- Pre-match betting favorite: Real Madrid @ 2.26
Madrid Derby H2H Record and Rivalry
The Madrid derby history stretches back decades. After Barca vs Real Madrid, this is the second-biggest encounter in Spain, and the most significant in Madrid. Past encounters between these two teams have brought tension and goals on both sides. Considering the passionate nature of the clash, red cards aren’t excluded.
If we take a look at the Atletico vs Real Madrid head-to-head record, it’s noticeable that the past three La Liga matches have ended in a 1-1 draw. Since it’s early in the season, both teams will be looking for a win now. The H2H stats show that the teams are pretty close in quality, which is the case this year as well.
If we compare the current form—which we’ll analyze later on—Real Madrid has the edge. While Atletico Madrid has been playing subpar in La Liga, Diego Simeone’s team should never be written out. Past encounters have shown that Atletico has the quality to beat Real, and the team will be looking to snag another win in front of its home fans.
Atletico vs Real Madrid Prediction – Current Form and Team News
It’s fair to say that Atletico Madrid didn’t have the start it was hoping for. After 5 rounds in La Liga, Simeone’s team has drawn 3 matches and won 2. Atletico Madrid’s form in the Champions League isn’t impressive, with a lackluster although spirited performance and a loss against Liverpool. It’s pretty clear that Atletico needs this win more than Real Madrid, although it comes at a pretty bad time for the Metropolitano outfit.
Even after a shoddy start in the first couple of matches, Real Madrid have hit their stride. The team has found its form under new manager Xabi Alonso, whose motto is out with the old and in with the new. What this means is that he has given space to young starts, while relying on the leadership of Kylian Mbappe.
So far, Real Madrid has won all 6 matches in La Liga and one CL clash. The team sits atop the La Liga standings, having double the points of Atletico. However, with Rudiger and Alexander Trend-Arnold out, the team has shown some defensive cracks that Atletico may explore. Real has conceded at least one goal in 4 of its last 5 matches. Of course, at the moment, Real’s far ahead of its rival, and that’s reflected in the Madrid derby odds.
Tactical Madrid Derby Analysis
Atletico Madrid has a defensive style of play that relies on counter-attacks. It was on full display against Liverpool, where the team leveled the score twice before succumbing late in the match. Atletico can score even when its play doesn’t impress, and that might be concerning against Real. Additionally, Real’s porous defense might have trouble against players such as Antoine Griezmann or the very much in-form Julien Alvarez.
Real Madrid’s strategy blistering attacks and midfield control will be key to winning against Atletico. The team goes all out from the first minute of the match, and does tend to score early. That might prove a big obstacle for Atletico Madrid, although the team has shown it can come back from behind. Nevertheless, Real’s attacking trio of Vinicius Jr., Kylian Mbappe, and new signing Franco Mastantuono should have enough creativity to put goals behind Jan Oblak.
Most experts believe that Atletico Madrid tactics will mostly stick to counter-attacks. However, depending on the starting minutes and any potential goals, the teams might abandon strategies and let individual performances take control.
Key Players to Watch
Julien Alvarez is coming off a hat-trick, scoring a total of 8 of his last 9 goals on home grounds. He’s one of the Madrid derby key players, and a good pick for player to score. Grizemann’s Atletico Madrid goalscoring prowess has been proven many times before. With the Frenchman’s experience and Alvarez’s lethality, Real Madrid could be in trouble.
For Real, Mbappe looks poised to score once again. It will be interesting to see how Vinicius and Mastantuono play against Atletico’s often-rough defense, which might lead to a penalty or a red card.
Atletico vs Real Madrid Prediction and Odds
The latest Atletico vs Real Madrid predictions suggest a draw is the likely outcome for this clash. Betting odds seem to be on Real’s side, and suggest goals on both sides. A Real win and 3+ total goals is a solid betting pick, as is a draw with goals on both sides – just like the last 3 Madrid derby clashes in La Liga.
Live betting opportunities are also aplenty. The high intensity of the derbies often leads to yellow and red cards, and penalties are a possibility as well. When it comes to goalscorers, bettors should take a look at Mbappe and Alvarez’s prices, as both players are in great form.
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Preview – Final Thoughts
Bettors and soccer fans alike are lucky to get such a good clash so early in the new La Liga season. The Madrid derby 2025 can set the tone for the remainder of the season, with both teams looking for a win. We encourage our fans to read into our Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid preview, which covers the latest team news and recommendations for the best bets.
Follow updates and live coverage at BetPlays and enjoy the first Madrid derby of the season!
Arizona Cardinals Betting Guide 2025 – Explore the Best Arizona Cardinals Betting Line and Props for 2025
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