Come scommettere sugli underdog: Trasformare i long-shot in grandi vincite

In sports betting, bet on underdogs are often overlooked, overshadowed by favorites with shorter odds and higher win probabilities. However, betting on underdogs can be one of the most rewarding strategies. While it involves more risk, the potential payouts and satisfaction of picking a surprise winner can make it worthwhile.

In this guide, we’ll explore why betting on underdogs is worth considering, how to spot valuable opportunities and strategies for increasing your chances of success.

Why Bet on Underdogs?

Betting on underdogs isn’t just about chasing high payouts, it’s about identifying value. Here’s what you should know about using this strategy.

• Higher Payouts: Since underdogs have longer odds, even a small wager can yield a substantial profit.
• Market Inefficiencies: Sportsbooks often set lines based on public perception, which can undervalue underdogs.
• Upset Potential: Sports are unpredictable, and even heavy favorites can falter under certain conditions.

Key Strategies for Betting on Underdogs

1. Analyze the Matchup, Not Just the Odds

Don’t blindly back an underdog just because the odds are enticing. Instead, dig deep into the matchup to find reasons the underdog has a fighting chance.

• Team/Player Form: Is the favorite on a losing streak or dealing with injuries? Is the underdog performing well recently?
• Style of Play: Does the underdog’s play style counter the favorite’s strengths?
• Venue Advantage: Home-field advantage can often give underdogs an edge.

As an example, in tennis, a player with a strong serve might thrive against a higher-ranked opponent who struggles with returns on fast courts like grass.

2. Identify Situations Favoring Underdogs

Certain scenarios are more likely to produce underdog wins. Look for the following.

• Overconfidence in Favorites: Favorites might underestimate lower-ranked opponents, especially in the early rounds of tournaments.
• High-Pressure Games: Favorites often face more pressure in playoffs or finals, where underdogs can play with less to lose.
• Weather and Conditions: Adverse weather or challenging playing conditions can level the playing field.

3. Bet on the Spread Instead of the Moneyline

While betting on an underdog’s moneyline offers the highest payout, spreads can provide a safer way to profit.

• Point Spread (ATS): This levels the playing field by giving the underdog a set number of points. For example, if the spread is +7.5, the underdog needs to win outright or lose by less than 8 points for your bet to win.

In Basketball, backing an NBA underdog at +7.5 allows for a close loss to still result in a winning bet.

4. Leverage Live Betting

Live betting offers a unique opportunity to spot underdog comebacks. If the favorite starts slow or an underdog gains momentum, you can find excellent value in real-time.

Tips for Live Betting:

• Watch for underdogs performing well in the early stages.
• Look for signs of fatigue or frustration in the favorite.
• React quickly to odds shifts during key moments.

5. Manage Your Bankroll Wisely

Because betting on underdogs carries more risk, proper bankroll management is crucial.

• Bet on Small Percentages: Allocate a smaller percentage of your bankroll to underdog bets, such as 1-2%.
• Diversify Bets: Don’t place all your funds on a single underdog; spread your wagers across multiple games or matches.

Examples of Famous Underdog Wins

Leicester City’s Premier League Win (2016)

Leicester City started the season with odds of 5000/1 to win the Premier League. Against all expectations, they claimed the title, proving that anything is possible in sports.

Miracle on Ice (1980)

The U.S. men’s hockey team, made up of amateurs and college players, defeated the heavily favored Soviet team in the Winter Olympics.

Buster Douglas vs. Mike Tyson (1990)

Douglas shocked the boxing world by defeating Tyson as a 42/1 underdog, a moment etched in sports betting history.

Mistakes to Avoid When Betting on Underdogs

• Ignoring Research: Always analyze stats, form, and matchup details before placing a bet.
• Overcommitting: Don’t wager large amounts on underdogs; treat them as high-risk investments.
• Chasing Losses: Avoid doubling down on underdogs after losing bets—stay disciplined and stick to your plan.

The Thrill of Backing Underdogs

Betting on underdogs isn’t just about the financial rewards—it’s also about the thrill of going against the crowd and being proven right. When you uncover value in overlooked teams or players, the excitement of watching them succeed is unmatched.

By using a combination of research, strategic thinking, and disciplined bankroll management, you can make betting on underdogs a smart and profitable part of your overall strategy.