Sports Betting

How to Bet on Underdogs and Still Be Profitable Long-Term

Published

6 months ago

February 10, 2025

CharlotteVance

How to Bet on Underdogs and Still Be Profitable Long-Term

Betting on underdogs is often seen as a risky strategy, but when approached correctly, it can be one of the most profitable long-term betting methods. Many casual bettors focus on favorites, assuming they have a higher chance of winning. However, sportsbooks often overprice favorites, creating better value on the underdog side.

A well-researched underdog betting strategy takes advantage of mispriced lines, public perception, and unexpected game dynamics. In this guide, we’ll break down why underdogs can be profitable, how to identify the right ones to bet on, and strategies to maximize returns while minimizing risk.

Why Betting on Underdogs Can Be Profitable

Many bettors shy away from underdogs, assuming favorites always have the upper hand. However, sportsbooks adjust odds based on public perception, often making underdog bets more valuable. By understanding how odds are set and how to identify profitable opportunities, betting on underdogs can become a key part of a winning strategy.

Sportsbooks Inflate Favorites’ Odds

Most recreational bettors prefer betting on favorites because they assume stronger teams will always win. Sportsbooks know this and often inflate favorite odds, making them less valuable from a betting perspective. This creates undervalued lines on underdogs, allowing smart bettors to capitalize on better payouts.

For example, if the public heavily bets on a popular NBA team at -300, the opposing underdog may be listed at +250 instead of a more accurate +200. This creates extra value for sharp bettors who understand the dynamics behind the line movement.

High Payouts Mean Fewer Wins Are Needed

Underdogs typically have higher payouts, meaning you don’t need to win as often to remain profitable.

For example:

If you bet on favorites at -200, you need to win 67% of the time just to break even.
If you bet on underdogs at +200, you only need to win 33% of the time to break even.

This means that even if you lose more bets than you win, you can still be profitable over time if you’re picking the right underdogs.

Market Inefficiencies Favor Underdogs

Sportsbooks struggle to properly adjust for underdogs in certain situations, leading to mispriced betting lines. This is common in:

Games with unpredictable outcomes (e.g., divisional matchups, rivalry games)
New or inexperienced teams (harder for sportsbooks to evaluate)
Injuries or roster changes that shift the game dynamic

By analyzing these factors, sharp bettors can find underdogs with real chances of winning at inflated odds.

How to Identify the Best Underdog Bets

Not all underdogs offer value, and blindly betting on them can lead to long-term losses. To maximize profits, bettors should focus on key indicators that suggest an underdog has a realistic chance to win or cover the spread. Analyzing team performance, historical trends, and market movement can help pinpoint the right bets.

Look for Strong Defensive Teams

Underdogs with solid defensive units are more likely to cover the spread or pull off outright wins. A strong defense can slow down an elite offense, keep the game close, and increase upset potential.

Example: A defensive-minded NFL team getting +6.5 points against an offensive powerhouse may have a better shot at covering the spread or even winning outright.

Identify Situational Betting Opportunities

Not all underdogs are created equal. Look for games where the situation favors the underdog, such as.

Home underdogs in primetime games (motivated by crowd energy)
Divisional matchups (teams are more familiar with each other, reducing talent gaps)
Favorites in letdown spots (e.g., a team coming off a huge emotional win might overlook a weaker opponent)

Track Line Movements and Betting Percentages

If heavy public money is backing a favorite, the underdog line may become inflated beyond its true value. Smart bettors watch for:

Reverse line movement (the line shifts in favor of the underdog despite more bets being placed on the favorite)
Sharp money backing the underdog (professional bettors moving the odds)

If the betting percentage is heavily on the favorite but the line isn’t moving, it might be a sign that sharp money is on the underdog.

Consider Coaching and Game Plan Factors

Some teams match up well against better opponents due to coaching strategy, playing style, or historical success. Coaches who excel at game planning for big matchups can make underdogs far more competitive than expected.

Example: In college football, an underdog team with an elite running game can keep the ball away from a high-powered offense, shortening the game and increasing upset chances.

Profitable Strategies for Betting on Underdogs

A well-structured betting strategy is essential when wagering on underdogs. While high payouts are tempting, a disciplined approach ensures consistency and long-term success. Whether betting against the spread, targeting moneyline underdogs, or using parlays strategically, each method has its advantages.

Bet the Spread for Consistency

Betting underdogs against the spread (ATS) is often a safer and more consistent way to profit. Even if an underdog doesn’t win outright, they can cover the spread and cash your ticket.

For example, if a +7 underdog loses by 6 points, they still cover the spread, meaning your bet is a winner. Over the course of a season, backing underdogs ATS can yield steady returns.

Take Advantage of Moneyline Underdogs in Close Matchups

Not all underdogs are extreme long shots. Sometimes, small underdogs (+120 to +180 range) offer the best value. These teams have a realistic shot at winning outright, providing higher payouts than just betting the spread.

Use Parlay and Round Robin Bets with Small Underdogs

Parlaying two or three small underdogs together can significantly boost payouts while maintaining a reasonable risk level. A round-robin strategy allows you to cover different combinations of underdogs, giving you multiple chances to profit even if one selection loses.

Look for Teams with Momentum

Underdogs coming off big wins or multiple covers may carry momentum into the next game. If an underdog has been outperforming expectations, sportsbooks might undervalue them, providing an edge for sharp bettors.

Common Mistakes to Avoid When Betting Underdogs

Even experienced bettors make mistakes when it comes to underdog betting. Some place wagers based on emotion rather than data, while others ignore important variables like injuries, fatigue, and public betting trends. Avoiding these common pitfalls can significantly improve betting performance.

Betting on Every Underdog

Not all underdogs provide value. Just because a team has high odds doesn’t mean it’s a smart bet. Always look for favorable matchups, trends, and market inefficiencies before making a wager.

Ignoring Public Betting Trends

If an underdog is receiving heavy public money, the value may already be gone. Once sportsbooks adjust the odds accordingly, the underdog loses its betting edge.

Overlooking Key Injuries or Rest Disadvantages

If an underdog is missing key players or playing a back-to-back game, they may struggle more than expected. Always check injury reports and scheduling factors before placing a bet.

Final Thoughts on Betting Underdogs for Profitability

While underdog betting is riskier than backing favorites, a smart and disciplined approach can make it highly profitable. Sportsbooks often overvalue favorites and undervalue underdogs, creating opportunities for sharp bettors to exploit mispriced odds.

By focusing on defensive teams, situational trends, line movements, and sharp money indicators, you can consistently identify underdogs with real chances of winning or covering the spread. Betting the right underdogs, rather than blindly wagering on every big-money line play, is key to long-term success.

Ultimately, the best betting strategy is one that takes advantage of market inefficiencies and hidden value. If approached carefully, underdog betting can be one of the most profitable and rewarding methods in sports betting.

Sports Betting

Manchester City vs Tottenham Betting Preview 2025 – Discover the Top Odds and Best Picks for PL’s Match of the Week

Published

6 hours ago

August 22, 2025

Naum Nikolovski

Learn everything you need to know in our City vs Spurs betting preview. This week’s Premier League match of the week is guaranteed to bring excitement as two of the top English clubs clash in the PL. Both are contenders for the trophy with strong squads and quality to see each other off.

In this Manchester City vs Tottenham betting preview, we’ll cover the best picks, markets, and odds for the upcoming match. We’ll check out the detailed betting odds for City and Spurs, and provide a few tips that might come in handy.

Table of Contents

City vs Spurs Betting Preview – Match Information

Kick off	13:30, Saturday, August 23
Venue	Etihad Stadium
Last matches	City beat Wolves 4-0; Spurs beat Burnley 3-0

The recent form of both teams suggest a high-profile match. Their preseasons were largely a success, with both coaches trying to incorporate new signings into the squad.

In the first week of the Premier League, both Manchester City and Tottenham beat their opponents. City dominated Wolves 4-0 with two goals from Erling Haaland, while the Spurs beat Burnley in stellar fashion by 3-0.

The recent performances indicate that we’re in for a true derby that should be interesting from start to finish. We’ll cover the H2H stats and historical performances further down our City vs Spurs Premier League betting preview.

Manchester City vs Tottenham Betting Preview 2025 – Discover the Top Odds and Best Picks for PL’s Match of the Week

City vs Spurs Head to Head and Historical Analysis

Manchester City and Tottenham are two of the best clubs in the Premier League. City has been dominating the English landscape for over a decade. It lost the title to Liverpool last season, but is looking to bounce back this season.

Tottenham has never won the Premier League, but is always close to the top and a threat to any contender. Historically, the matches between these clubs are closer than bettors might think. The Manchester squad leads the City vs Spurs head to head, with 62 wins against Tottenham’s 60. The teams have drawn 33 times.

In the past 12 matches, City has only won 4. Tottenham has won 6 of those duels, while 2 have ended in a draw.

Manchester City vs Tottenham – Team News and Tactics

Manchester City have overhauled its squad by adding some key signings. These include AC Milan’s former midfield general Tijjani Reijnders, who has been performing on a high note so far. Per the latest Manchester City news, Pep Guardiola will deploy a 4-3-3 formation with Reijnders in the midfield pulling the strings.

Erling Haaland will once again lead the attack, most likely joined by new signing Rayan Cherki. Oscar Bobb may get another nod on the flanks with Phil Foden still sidelined. A big question remains looking over Rodri’s involvement. He’s been given the green light, but the Ballon d’Or winner may wait for a while to play again. If Guardiola adds him to the midfield, it will likely be on a minute restriction.

The Tottenham formation under new manager Thomas Frank will likely see the deployment of five players in the back. This isn’t random – the team will be looking to contain Reijnders. New signing Joao Palhinha will feature in the midfield, feeding the attack up front.

As for the attack, the most likely players to feature are Mohammed Kudus, Brennan Johnson, and either Richarlison or Dominic Solanke. The latest Tottenham news suggest a start for Richarlison, who opened his scoring tally against Burnley.

City vs Spurs Betting Odds and Markets

The betting odds for City vs Spurs are already out. There are thousands of markets to pick from at BetPlays, ranging from match winner to in-play betting markets.

Playing on home ground, it’s pretty clear that Manchester City leads the moneyline. Tottenham is an underdog in this match, which doesn’t mean it won’t test Pep Guardiola’s squad. Bettors are advised to take a look at all the markets, including totals and goal betting, with recent results between the two teams suggesting such an outcome.

Team	Match Winner Odds
Manchester City	1.50
Tottenham	5.85

Expect Picks and Trends

The expert picks City Spurs suggest a win for Guardiola’s squad. While Tottenham is certainly a team of quality, the Citizens have much better depth and are properly covered on all positions. They started the season in style with a 4-0 win, which suggests that City is once again on the hunt for the trophy.

Tottenham is playing away from home, which is reflected in the moneyline odds. With new manager Thomas Frank at the helm, the team has produced a solid preseason and a win in the first round of the Premier League. Frank’s team plays a more attacking football than before, and the new signings together with a reinvigorated Richarlison can be trouble for City’s defense.

The most recent trends suggest solid returns on over 3.5 goals. Experts believe this is a win for City, with over 3.5 goals as a possible outcome as well. There’s a high probability that both teams will score. Bettors who like bet builders can also try their luck on props, such as Reijnders to score or assist, or a Brennan Johnson, Richarlison, or Haaland to score anytime.

Best Manchester City vs Spurs bet: City win and both teams to score

Manchester City vs Tottenham Betting Strategy

Bettors should always practice responsible gambling, whether it’s Premier League betting or any other market they’re betting on. Please take responsible steps to remain in control of your time and budget. The same thing applies when playing at online casinos or casino apps.
Exploring BetPlays markets mentioned in this Manchester City vs Tottenham betting preview is a must for value bets. Moneylines and goal betting offers decent value, but taking a look at other markets may help bettors spot bets of better value.
Reading expert tips and Manchester City vs Tottenham previews will help you get a better understanding of what the most valuable markets are. Check out our regular betting tips today for final picks on any match, including this week’s match of the week.
With the help of bet builders, bettors can create a strategy for the Man City vs Tottenham match on August 23. Bet builders can provide better payouts for smart bettors, allowing them to string together several bets of value.

FAQ

Is It Safe to Bet on the Premier League Online?

Yes, it’s perfectly safe to bet at BetPlays on the Manchester City vs Tottenham match and all other Premier League matches. The sports betting site is properly licensed and protects data with SSL encryption.

What’s the Best Manchester City vs Tottenham Bet?

Most bettors will go with the moneyline, but we suggest exploring other markets as well. Current trends and expert picks suggest a win for Man City and both teams to score.

Can I Bet on Man City vs Tottenham from My Mobile Phone?

Absolutely. You can use BetPlays’ mobile site to bet on the go. The odds, picks, and markets are the same as on the desktop version.

Is Live Betting Available for Manchester City vs Tottenham?

Yes, live betting is available for the upcoming City vs Spurs clash. The live betting markets require more concentration, but offer unique betting opportunities and great value.

Sports Betting

Serie A Betting 2025 – Discover the Top Serie A Online Bookmakers and How to Bet on the Serie A

Published

2 days ago

August 20, 2025

Naum Nikolovski

We’ve reached the point of the year where Serie A betting is getting relevant once again. The new season will start on August 23 with a double-header at 12:30 PM that involves the current champion – Napoli. Can Antonio Conte’s team challenge for the Scudetto once again? That, and other Serie A betting opportunities are presented in this article.

We’ll cover the top Serie A odds, favorites, and predictions for the upcoming season below. As one of the top soccer leagues in Europe, the Serie A doesn’t lack excitement or thrills.

Table of Contents

What is the Serie A?

The Serie A is Italy’s top-flight football division. Established in 1929, it’s the main professional football league in the country, sitting right above Serie B. It is organized by the Lega Serie A since 2010, after previously being organized by Lega Calcio from 1946. The previous organization is the reason for the Serie A’s nickname – Calcio.

Serie A features 20 clubs who play a round-robin format and a promotion/relegation system. The Serie A is home to some of Europe’s biggest football clubs. These include Inter, Milan, Napoli, and Juventus. Some of these teams are widely successful in Europe, and thanks to the league’s top quality, it has produced several Ballon d’Or winners.

Its popularity is further enhanced by Serie A betting online, which offers top odds, markets, and betting opportunities.

How to Bet on the Serie A?

Betting on the Serie A is a straightforward process. Of course, bettors should first take a look at a trusted soccer betting site such as BetPlays in order to get the most out of their sessions.

Register at BetPlays
Log in with your credentials
Use trusted payment methods to fund your account
Pick Serie A from the soccer menu
Wager on the markets you want
Wait for the outcome

Serie A betting features a long list of markets, some of which we’ll cover next.

Top Serie A Betting Markets

With a wide range of markets, betting on the Serie A has never been more fun at BetPlays. Unlike the past, bettors don’t have to stick to a few markets only. They can bet on everything from the match outcome and exact result to prop bets and in-play markets, all of which add some welcome variety.

These are the most popular Serie A online betting markets to wager on.

Match result: if there’s one market every bettor knows of, it’s this one. Available on Serie A matches as well, the match result market lets you choose the winner of a match, which can be the home or away team.
1×2: the 1×2 Serie A betting market is available at all top Serie A sportsbooks. It’s the same as match result, but adds the draw (X) to the mix.
Serie A betting outrights: online sportsbooks have early Serie A odds on the major favorites. Bettors can pick the teams they believe are headed for a trophy, but they have to wait for the end of the season for the outcome.
Top goalscorer: here’s an exciting and popular Serie A betting market that you shouldn’t skip. With some of the world’s best strikers in the Lega Calcio, snagging the top goalscorer trophy can be an exciting race.
Live Serie A online betting: live betting markets are available on all Serie A matches. The biggest derbies also get live streams, while live stats updated by the minute are available for all matches at BetPlays. The Serie A odds for in-play markets can be very attractive, especially for specials such as next goal, yellow card, or corner.

When it comes to betting on the Serie A, these markets are just scraping the surface. There are dozens of others available as well, so explore them all before placing a single bet or parlays.

Top Serie A Betting Favorites 25-26

The Serie A odds for the outright favorites are already out. With the season beginning shortly, it would be a good idea to check the odds for the top favorites before proceeding with your bets.

Team	Odds
Napoli	3.00
Inter	3.50
Juventus	5.50
AC Milan	6.50

Note: the odds are subject to change.

Serie A betting experts believe that current champion Napoli has the best odds of winning the Scudetto race. The Naples-based team has a strong squad further reinforced by new signings such as Kevin De Bruyne.

Per the latest Serie A prediction, Napoli should face heavy competition from Inter, who was right on its heels last year. Juventus and AC Milan can mount a title challenge, too, but their odds are longer compared to the duo at the top of the list.

Serie A Betting Tips and Predictions

When betting on the Serie A, proper research is required. The league has wild swings and many surprises week in and week out. Match bettors should focus on team and player form as well as head to head stats to get a proper look at the chances for each tip.
Experienced bettors know how important it is to follow weekly Serie A tips and predictions. Expert tips and match previews posted on this blog can give many bettors the right ideas and possibly help them add some value to parlays.
If you’re not a big fan of match results, totals, or handicaps, you can look toward prop bets or goal betting. These markets offer a bit more freedom for bettors to make profit without focusing on the match outcome.
As always, we strongly advise betting responsibly on the Serie A. Don’t bet a lot of money if you want to be successful in the long run. Also, ensure that you’re betting with money you can afford to lose and never chase your losses.

FAQ

Is It Safe to Bet on the Serie A at BetPlays?

Yes, it is safe to bet on the Serie A online at BetPlays. The betting site has a proper license and uses advanced security mechanisms to protect player data.

Is Serie A Betting Available on the Go?

Yes, of course. BetPlays’ mobile website offers the same sports and betting markets, including the Serie A. Log in with your existing credentials and bet on your mobile phone anytime.

What Payment Methods Can I Use to Bet on the Serie A?

You can use a variety of payment methods to fund your Serie A odds and bets at BetPlays. We recommend going with familiar options such as debit cards or trying lightning-fast crypto transactions.

Sports Betting

Manchester United vs Arsenal Prediction – Betting Tips and Odds for the PL Match of the Week

Published

1 week ago

August 15, 2025

Naum Nikolovski

Last updated: August 15, 2025

In our Manchester United vs Arsenal prediction guide, we’ll talk more about one of Premier League’s opening bangers. Every season of the PL starts with the champion opening the first round, which is the case this year, too, when Liverpool play Bournemouth on August 15. However, the major highlight of week 1 is the Man Utd vs Arsenal match, which is the topic of our EPL opening day preview.

The opening round of the Premier League rarely features one of the biggest derbies in England early in the season. This detailed Manchester United vs Arsenal prediction article will cover all the important details and recommend some Premier League betting tips and tricks for the clash.

Table of Contents

Manchester United vs Arsenal Prediction – Date, Kick Off Time, and Venue

Date: Sunday, August 17
Venue: Old Trafford
Kick Off: 17:30 CET

Arsenal vs Man Utd Betting Preview

Manchester United and Arsenal will clash in the most interesting fixture of the EPL opening round. Both teams are among the contenders, although with many unanswered questions.

Let’s start with the home team. Manchester United is getting a fresh start under Ruben Amorim, who came to the helm halfway through last season. Amorim has made a deep cut in the squad, completely reshaping the attack this summer with Bryan Mbeumo, Matheus Cunha, and Benjamin Sesko.

Manchester United vs Arsenal Prediction – Betting Tips and Odds for the PL Match of the Week

The preseason was a blast, and the new signings proved more than capable. However, United is still brittle in the back, and Andre Onana’s performance so far has been subpar.

Arsenal has a lot to prove this season, after missing out on the Premier League and other important trophies in the past few. This is maybe Mikel Arteta’s last chance to shine. The team has optimized its attack with Viktor Gyokeres, as well as Martin Zubimendi and Noni Madueke in key positions.

The Man Utd vs Arsenal predictions are already in, with most experts predicting a low-scoring draw or a narrow win for Arsenal. It will be interesting to see how the new signings integrate with their squads and what kind of impact they will have.

Man Und vs Arsenal Odds

Considering last season’s results, Arsenal has a narrow lead over Manchester United. Here are the Manchester United vs Arsenal odds for the match winner market.

Team	Match Winner Odds
Manchester United	3.58
Arsenal	2.06

Note: the odds are subject to change. Source: BetPlays.

Man Utd vs Arsenal Head to Head Record

Before diving deeper into the Manchester United vs Arsenal prediction guide, it’s important to learn the team’s most recent history and form. Arsenal has been more successful over the past 5 matches. What’s evident is that both teams are likely to score, which is good to know for upcoming Man Utd vs Arsenal betting trends.

Last 5 Matches

Date	Teams	Result
03.09.2025	Manchester United vs Arsenal	1-1
12.01.2025	Arsenal vs Manchester United	1-1
04.12.2025	Arsenal vs Manchester United	2-0
28.07.2024	Manchester United vs Arsenal	1-2
12.05.2024	Manchester United vs Arsenal	0-1

According to the Manchester United vs Arsenal h2h stats, the past five matches have been close. Since history likes to repeat itself, both teams are likely to score. Bettors who prefer the Man Utd vs Arsenal score prediction may want to keep the numbers low and pick Arsenal as a winner.

Manchester United vs Arsenal Prediction – Lineups & Team News

One of the main talking points for Man Utd vs Arsenal predictions is if Andre Onana will be fit to stand on goal for the Red Devils. If he isn’t, Bayindir gets the nod. He’s a less experienced goalkeeper than Onana, which could negatively affect Manchester United’s chances.

In defense, the line will most likely feature Leni Yoro, Matthijs De Light, and Harry Maguide.
The midfield should consist of Ugarte, Diallo, Dorgu, and Bruno Fernandes.
Benjamin Sesko is set to make his debut as the lone striker, with new signings Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha right behind.

Arsenal has an already settled squad. David Raya is healthy and will feature on the goal line.

The back four should feature Ben White, Saliba, Gabriel, and Lewis-Skelly.
In midfield, new signing Martin Zubimendi should appear alongside Declan Rice and Martin Odegaard.
The attack should be flanked by Saka and Martinelli, with Viktor Gyokeres in the middle.

While not confirmed, these are the likely squads to take the field on Sunday. This should make the Manchester United vs Arsenal betting preview much easier for all bettors, as the quality of the squad has a major impact on the outcome.

Manchester United vs Arsenal Prediction – Best Bets & Odds

The Man Utd vs Arsenal odds are already in. As expected, the match winner market is already getting a lot of attention. However, since this is a high-profile clash, bettors should take a look at the other Premier League betting markets for this match as well as well.

Match Winner

Arsenal is the clear favorite in our Manchester United vs Arsenal prediction guide. The odds clearly point to it, and considering Man Utd’s struggles last season, the Gunners may come out on top.

Experts are adamant that it won’t be a blowout victory. However, Arsenal hold a slight advantage, so it might win the match with one goal difference.

Best bet: Arsenal @ 2.06

Correct Score Predictions

Taking into account the last few Manchester United vs Arsenal h2h stats, experts believe that Arsenal will win the match 2-1. The Man Utd vs Arsenal odds for this market are fairly high, so bettors are in for a decent profit if this Manchester United vs Arsenal prediction comes true.

Best bet: Arsenal to win 1-2 @ 9.20

BTTS

Both Manchester United and Arsenal pack a lot of firepower. Bettors who don’t like to predict the outcome or correct score can pick the BTTS market, which is priced reasonably.

Best bet: Both teams to score @ 1.71

Over/Under

Totals are among the most popular markets for the Manchester United vs Arsenal prediction and tips. The line is set at 2.5 goals, and this will be the main pick for many parlay bettors. Here are the Man Utd vs Arsenal odds for the total number of goals scored in the upcoming derby: