How to Bet on Underdogs and Still Be Profitable Long-Term

Betting on underdogs is often seen as a risky strategy, but when approached correctly, it can be one of the most profitable long-term betting methods. Many casual bettors focus on favorites, assuming they have a higher chance of winning. However, sportsbooks often overprice favorites, creating better value on the underdog side.

A well-researched underdog betting strategy takes advantage of mispriced lines, public perception, and unexpected game dynamics. In this guide, we’ll break down why underdogs can be profitable, how to identify the right ones to bet on, and strategies to maximize returns while minimizing risk.

Why Betting on Underdogs Can Be Profitable

Many bettors shy away from underdogs, assuming favorites always have the upper hand. However, sportsbooks adjust odds based on public perception, often making underdog bets more valuable. By understanding how odds are set and how to identify profitable opportunities, betting on underdogs can become a key part of a winning strategy.

Sportsbooks Inflate Favorites’ Odds

Most recreational bettors prefer betting on favorites because they assume stronger teams will always win. Sportsbooks know this and often inflate favorite odds, making them less valuable from a betting perspective. This creates undervalued lines on underdogs, allowing smart bettors to capitalize on better payouts.

For example, if the public heavily bets on a popular NBA team at -300, the opposing underdog may be listed at +250 instead of a more accurate +200. This creates extra value for sharp bettors who understand the dynamics behind the line movement.

High Payouts Mean Fewer Wins Are Needed

Underdogs typically have higher payouts, meaning you don’t need to win as often to remain profitable.

For example:

• If you bet on favorites at -200, you need to win 67% of the time just to break even.
• If you bet on underdogs at +200, you only need to win 33% of the time to break even.

This means that even if you lose more bets than you win, you can still be profitable over time if you’re picking the right underdogs.

Market Inefficiencies Favor Underdogs

Sportsbooks struggle to properly adjust for underdogs in certain situations, leading to mispriced betting lines. This is common in:

• Games with unpredictable outcomes (e.g., divisional matchups, rivalry games)
• New or inexperienced teams (harder for sportsbooks to evaluate)
• Injuries or roster changes that shift the game dynamic

By analyzing these factors, sharp bettors can find underdogs with real chances of winning at inflated odds.

How to Identify the Best Underdog Bets

Not all underdogs offer value, and blindly betting on them can lead to long-term losses. To maximize profits, bettors should focus on key indicators that suggest an underdog has a realistic chance to win or cover the spread. Analyzing team performance, historical trends, and market movement can help pinpoint the right bets.

Look for Strong Defensive Teams

Underdogs with solid defensive units are more likely to cover the spread or pull off outright wins. A strong defense can slow down an elite offense, keep the game close, and increase upset potential.

Example: A defensive-minded NFL team getting +6.5 points against an offensive powerhouse may have a better shot at covering the spread or even winning outright.

Identify Situational Betting Opportunities

Not all underdogs are created equal. Look for games where the situation favors the underdog, such as.

• Home underdogs in primetime games (motivated by crowd energy)
• Divisional matchups (teams are more familiar with each other, reducing talent gaps)
• Favorites in letdown spots (e.g., a team coming off a huge emotional win might overlook a weaker opponent)

Track Line Movements and Betting Percentages

If heavy public money is backing a favorite, the underdog line may become inflated beyond its true value. Smart bettors watch for:

• Reverse line movement (the line shifts in favor of the underdog despite more bets being placed on the favorite)
• Sharp money backing the underdog (professional bettors moving the odds)

If the betting percentage is heavily on the favorite but the line isn’t moving, it might be a sign that sharp money is on the underdog.

Consider Coaching and Game Plan Factors

Some teams match up well against better opponents due to coaching strategy, playing style, or historical success. Coaches who excel at game planning for big matchups can make underdogs far more competitive than expected.

Example: In college football, an underdog team with an elite running game can keep the ball away from a high-powered offense, shortening the game and increasing upset chances.

Profitable Strategies for Betting on Underdogs

A well-structured betting strategy is essential when wagering on underdogs. While high payouts are tempting, a disciplined approach ensures consistency and long-term success. Whether betting against the spread, targeting moneyline underdogs, or using parlays strategically, each method has its advantages.

Bet the Spread for Consistency

Betting underdogs against the spread (ATS) is often a safer and more consistent way to profit. Even if an underdog doesn’t win outright, they can cover the spread and cash your ticket.

For example, if a +7 underdog loses by 6 points, they still cover the spread, meaning your bet is a winner. Over the course of a season, backing underdogs ATS can yield steady returns.

Take Advantage of Moneyline Underdogs in Close Matchups

Not all underdogs are extreme long shots. Sometimes, small underdogs (+120 to +180 range) offer the best value. These teams have a realistic shot at winning outright, providing higher payouts than just betting the spread.

Use Parlay and Round Robin Bets with Small Underdogs

Parlaying two or three small underdogs together can significantly boost payouts while maintaining a reasonable risk level. A round-robin strategy allows you to cover different combinations of underdogs, giving you multiple chances to profit even if one selection loses.

Look for Teams with Momentum

Underdogs coming off big wins or multiple covers may carry momentum into the next game. If an underdog has been outperforming expectations, sportsbooks might undervalue them, providing an edge for sharp bettors.

Common Mistakes to Avoid When Betting Underdogs

Even experienced bettors make mistakes when it comes to underdog betting. Some place wagers based on emotion rather than data, while others ignore important variables like injuries, fatigue, and public betting trends. Avoiding these common pitfalls can significantly improve betting performance.

Betting on Every Underdog

Not all underdogs provide value. Just because a team has high odds doesn’t mean it’s a smart bet. Always look for favorable matchups, trends, and market inefficiencies before making a wager.

Ignoring Public Betting Trends

If an underdog is receiving heavy public money, the value may already be gone. Once sportsbooks adjust the odds accordingly, the underdog loses its betting edge.

Overlooking Key Injuries or Rest Disadvantages

If an underdog is missing key players or playing a back-to-back game, they may struggle more than expected. Always check injury reports and scheduling factors before placing a bet.

Final Thoughts on Betting Underdogs for Profitability

While underdog betting is riskier than backing favorites, a smart and disciplined approach can make it highly profitable. Sportsbooks often overvalue favorites and undervalue underdogs, creating opportunities for sharp bettors to exploit mispriced odds.

By focusing on defensive teams, situational trends, line movements, and sharp money indicators, you can consistently identify underdogs with real chances of winning or covering the spread. Betting the right underdogs, rather than blindly wagering on every big-money line play, is key to long-term success.

Ultimately, the best betting strategy is one that takes advantage of market inefficiencies and hidden value. If approached carefully, underdog betting can be one of the most profitable and rewarding methods in sports betting.