US Open Betting Favorites and Predictions

With Wimbledon finished, bettors are turning toward US Open betting markets. The last Grand Slam of the year enjoys major popularity in North America, and is one of the most revered tournaments for bettors and tennis fans as well. If you want to get started with US Open betting, but you don’t know where to begin, our guide can help.

We’ll present the best US Open betting 2025 markets and favorites and talk more about the available markets and odds. Read on to learn more and find the best US Open betting odds at the top Canadian sports betting sites.

What is the US Open 2025?

The US Open is the fourth Grand Slam of the tennis season. It takes place in New York every year, running from mid to late August for two weeks. The first US Open was held in 1881, originally as a national men’s singles and doubles tournament. At the dawn of the XIX century, it introduced women’s singles, doubles, and mixed doubles as well.

The main tournament was held at different venues over the years. It moved to the West Side Tennis Club in NYC in 1968, when it was also renamed to US Open. In 1978, it moves to the Flushing Meadows courts, where it is held to this day.

While it was held on different surfaces including grass and clay, once it moved to 1978, the US Open changed that to hard acrylic courts. That surface stayed to this day, making it the second hard court Grand Slam of the season after the Australian Open.

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US Open betting plays a large part in the tournament’s popularity. Millions are placed in bets every year, and the 2025 edition is already heating up at the top online sports betting sites in Canada.

US Open Betting Basics

Every year, tennis betting fans await the US Open with great anticipation. As the last Grand Slam of the year, it’s an opportunity for tennis players to complete a golden slam. Intense rivalries and betting opportunities are a big part of it all, especially now when the old guard has hung up their tennis rackets.

New rivalries between young tennis phenoms such as Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are born. At the same time, the top tennis betting sites have a range of US Open betting markets to place bets on. These include fixed and live betting markets, the most popular of which can be seen below.

Different Types of US Open Betting Markets

There are numerous different US Open betting markets available at the moment. The tournament doesn’t start until late in August, but the top Canadian tennis betting sites already have early odds posted.

Markets include outrights at the moment, which will be expanded to match winners and other popular options as soon as the tournament takes shape.

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Moneylines

Moneyline betting is the most popular tennis betting market, and one of the most popular markets among all sports. It’s a straightforward type of win/lose bet, which is based on wagers of $100.

Markets with a – show the size of the wager bettors need to put in order to win $100. With +, or positive odds, moneylines show how much a bettor can win on a $100 bet.

So, if you put a bet on a favorite with – odds at -120, it shows that you win $100 on a bet of $120. Conversely, a +150 underdog brings pays $150 on a $100 bet. The initial stake is returned with moneylines together with the winnings.

Spreads

Tennis betting spreads are another popular market for the US Open. A spread indicates the margin of games won over the course of a US Open match. These are further divided between game and set spreads.

Game and Set Spreads

Game and set spreads indicate the number of games or sets a player should win to cover the spread. For example, if a player is favored at -4 games, they need to win by 4 or more games to cover the spread.

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Set spreads work in a similar way. A favorite with a -2 set spread should win by 2 sets or more to cover the spread. Underdogs with a +2 US Open betting spread win if they manage to win the match by one set.

Game Over/Under

Over/unders refer to the number of games in a US Open match. Bookies set a line of games over all three sets, and bettors can put their money on whether the match goes over or under the numbers.

For example, if the O/U is set at 35, you can bet on the match going over or under that number. Your bet slip wins depending on your prediction. Betting platforms have automatic systems that count everything automatically, so you’ll know if you’ve won or lost your bet.

Player Props

Player props are an interesting US Open betting market that’s not tied to the final match result. For example, bettors can wager on which player is winning a particular set. Prop bets are usually available for major tournaments and Grand Slams such as the US Open 2025.

Parlays

Parlays allow bettors to tie several bets into a single payout. Every part of the parlay is a leg. The odds are combined into a massive payout, but in order to win, all legs must win.

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This means that US Open betting parlays are perfect for bettors who are looking for a big score with a small investment. It’s a high-risk/high-reward situation, but one that might be worth it for US Open betting markets.

US Open Tennis Live Betting

US Open tennis betting markets have become increasingly popular in the past few years. Canadian bettors prefer to bet on live matches, predicting where the next point, game, or set land.

Live tennis betting opens up a plethora of new opportunities. At the same time, the best Canadian betting sites usually offer live streams of the most important US Open matches. This allows bettors to watch matches while betting on them live, possibly enjoying a quick payout.

How to Bet on the US Open 2025?

Betting on the US Open 2025 is a straightforward process. Right now, the best Canadian online betting sites have outright markets where you can pick the winner of the tournament.

Betting on the US Open is as easy as clicking on the available odds. Once the tournament is underway, new odds will appear for match winners as well as all other important fixed and live betting markets.

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US Open Betting Favorites 2025

With the old guard gone, it’s time for new young players to take up the mantle. The US Open betting favorites are listed below in the table, with Sinner and Alcaraz leading the charge.

*Note: the current US Open betting favorites odds are provided by BetPlays and are subject to change. Check the odds as they will change as the tournament draws near.

Notable 2025 US Open Betting Favorites

Despite the fact that Novak Djokovic is at the end of his career, he’s still among the top US Open betting favorites. The list opens with Sinner and Alcaraz, who are up front thanks to their recent Grand Slam success.

Jannik Sinner

Jannik Sinner is the world number one at the moment and the player to beat at the US Open. He’s been playing well at hard courts this year, winning the Australian Open and Wimbledon.

Sinner’s only loss at Grand Slam finals came at the French Open, having been beaten by Carlos Alcaraz while two sets up. But the Wimbledon trophy puts him in pole position, making him the US Open betting favorite for the moment.

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Carlos Alcaraz

The Spaniard has won Roland Garros and will certainly look to even out Sinner’s record of two Grand Slams this year. He’s a fierce competitor who has a US Open title behind his name, having won the tournament in 2023.

Alcaraz is the second betting favorite this year, with bettors drooling over a potential final against Jannik Sinner. His last performance wasn’t so great, but this year, Alcaraz is aiming high.

Novak Djokovic

Can anyone write off Novak Djokovic as a Grand Slam winner at the age of 38? No – it would be foolish to think so. As one of the most decorated players in tennis of all time, Djokovic is leaps and bounds over players not named Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz.

He’s the third US Open betting favorite at the moment, with much sharper odds than the due in front. If you believe he has what it takes for another Grand Slam title, betting on Djokovic is a good idea.

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Low-scoring games can be some of the most profitable betting opportunities for those who understand how to analyze matchups and identify value in totals and under bets. While many casual bettors prefer wagering on high-scoring games, betting on unders can provide a significant edge if approached with the right strategy.

Oddsmakers set totals (over/under lines) based on public perception, team trends, and expected game pace. However, these lines are often inflated due to public bias toward high-scoring games, leaving sharp bettors with undervalued under bets. This guide will break down when and how to bet on low-scoring games, key statistics to analyze, and effective strategies for maximizing profits.

Understanding Totals Betting and the “Under” Strategy

A totals bet (also called an over/under bet) is a wager on the combined number of points scored by both teams. If you bet the under, you’re predicting that the total will be lower than the sportsbook’s line.

For example, in an NBA game:

• The sportsbook sets the total at 215.5 points
• You bet the under
• If the final score is 105-102 (207 total points), you win the bet

While overs are more popular with recreational bettors, unders often hold more value, especially in games where defensive matchups, slow pace, or external conditions impact scoring.

Key Factors to Consider When Betting on Low-Scoring Games

Several factors contribute to a low-scoring game, including team pace, defensive efficiency, player injuries, weather conditions, and referee tendencies. Identifying these factors before placing a bet helps improve accuracy and ensures you’re making an informed decision.

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Team Pace and Playing Style

The pace of play is one of the most important factors in identifying low-scoring games. Teams that slow down possessions, prioritize defense, and limit fast breaks tend to produce lower totals.

• In basketball, teams with a low possessions per game (PPG) tend to produce under-friendly outcomes.
• In football, teams that run the ball heavily and control possession lower the number of offensive drives, reducing scoring chances.
• In soccer, teams with defensive formations (such as a 5-4-1 or 4-5-1 setup) often produce under-friendly games.

Defensive Efficiency and Matchups

Some teams may not play fast, but if their defense is weak, the total can still go over. Instead, focus on teams that rank highly in defensive efficiency.

• NBA Example: If two teams in the top 5 for Defensive Rating are playing, the under is more appealing.
• NFL Example: If both teams have elite defenses but average offenses, a low-scoring game is likely.
• Soccer Example: If a team has a strong backline but struggles to score, under 2.5 goals may hold value.

Key Player Injuries and Rest Factors

Injuries to key scorers, playmakers, or quarterbacks can significantly impact offensive output.

• If an NBA team’s leading scorer is out, expect a slower offensive pace and fewer points.
• In the NFL, if a team’s starting quarterback or top wide receiver is missing, their offensive efficiency drops.
• In soccer, missing a star striker often leads to fewer goals.

Weather and Game Conditions

External conditions can play a major role in low-scoring games, particularly in outdoor sports like football, baseball, and soccer.

• Heavy rain or snow affects passing accuracy and ball control, making unders more attractive.
• Strong winds can impact long throws, field goals, and deep passes in football.
• Cold weather games tend to be lower-scoring, as offenses struggle with execution.

Referee and Officiating Trends

Some referees call fewer fouls or penalties, leading to lower free throws in basketball or fewer power plays in hockey, which reduces scoring opportunities.

• In the NBA, referees who let teams play physically without calling fouls often lead to low-scoring games.
• In the NFL, officiating crews that call more offensive holding penalties can slow down high-powered offenses.

Tracking referee trends and their impact on pace and scoring can give bettors an extra edge.

Strategies for Betting the Under Successfully

Betting unders requires a different approach than betting overs. Instead of looking for explosive offenses, focus on defensive matchups, slow-paced teams, and situational betting opportunities. Using the right strategies can help you capitalize on mispriced totals and live betting opportunities.

Target Inflated Totals

Public bettors love high-scoring games, which often leads to sportsbooks setting totals higher than they should be. Sharp bettors should:

• Monitor line movement to see if the total increases due to public betting
• Wait for the line to reach peak inflation before betting the under
• Compare historical scoring trends between the teams to identify mispriced totals

Bet Live Unders for Even Better Value

If you missed a pre-game under bet, live betting can offer better opportunities.

• If a game starts with a high-scoring first quarter or period, sportsbooks will adjust the total upwards.
• If you expect scoring to slow down (due to fatigue, halftime adjustments, or injuries), you can get a better under number live than pregame.

For example, if an NFL game opens with a fast first quarter, the live total might rise from 45 to 52 points, creating a better under bet mid-game.

Consider First-Half Unders

If you’re unsure about full-game scoring, first-half unders can be a safer approach.

• Many teams start slow before adjusting in the second half.
• Defensive teams tend to hold opponents early but fatigue later in the game.
• If both teams play conservatively in the first half, the under has a higher hit rate.

Use Team Trends and Situational Analysis

Certain teams consistently play lower-scoring games in specific situations.

• Back-to-back games in the NBA: Fatigued teams often play slower and less efficiently, favoring the under.
• Thursday Night NFL games: Teams have less time to prepare, leading to less offensive efficiency.
• International soccer matches: In group-stage games where a draw benefits both teams, under bets hold value.

Common Mistakes to Avoid When Betting Unders

Even experienced bettors make errors when wagering on unders. Failing to consider injuries, team fatigue, or late-game scoring trends can turn a winning bet into a loss. Avoiding these mistakes can improve your success rate and maximize your profits.

Betting Unders Blindly Without Research

While unders offer great value, blindly betting them without analyzing pace, defense, and game conditions can be costly. Always check matchups, trends, and external factors before placing a bet.

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Ignoring Injury and Fatigue Effects on Defense

While offensive injuries lower scoring, defensive injuries can have the opposite effect. A missing key defender can lead to easier scoring opportunities for the opponent, pushing the total over.

Overreacting to Small Sample Sizes

Just because a team had one or two low-scoring games doesn’t mean they are a great under bet long-term. Always look at season-long trends and matchup-based data before making a decision.

Final Thoughts on Betting Unders for Profitability

Betting on low-scoring games can be highly profitable for those who analyze pace, defense, game conditions, and public betting trends. Since sportsbooks often inflate totals to match public perception, sharp bettors can take advantage of mispriced unders for long-term success.

By identifying defensive matchups, betting live under, and avoiding common pitfalls, you can consistently find value in the under market. While most bettors chase high-scoring thrillers, those who understand when and how to bet the under will gain an edge in the sports betting market.

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Betting on underdogs is often seen as a risky strategy, but when approached correctly, it can be one of the most profitable long-term betting methods. Many casual bettors focus on favorites, assuming they have a higher chance of winning. However, sportsbooks often overprice favorites, creating better value on the underdog side.

A well-researched underdog betting strategy takes advantage of mispriced lines, public perception, and unexpected game dynamics. In this guide, we’ll break down why underdogs can be profitable, how to identify the right ones to bet on, and strategies to maximize returns while minimizing risk.

Why Betting on Underdogs Can Be Profitable

Many bettors shy away from underdogs, assuming favorites always have the upper hand. However, sportsbooks adjust odds based on public perception, often making underdog bets more valuable. By understanding how odds are set and how to identify profitable opportunities, betting on underdogs can become a key part of a winning strategy.

Sportsbooks Inflate Favorites’ Odds

Most recreational bettors prefer betting on favorites because they assume stronger teams will always win. Sportsbooks know this and often inflate favorite odds, making them less valuable from a betting perspective. This creates undervalued lines on underdogs, allowing smart bettors to capitalize on better payouts.

For example, if the public heavily bets on a popular NBA team at -300, the opposing underdog may be listed at +250 instead of a more accurate +200. This creates extra value for sharp bettors who understand the dynamics behind the line movement.

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High Payouts Mean Fewer Wins Are Needed

Underdogs typically have higher payouts, meaning you don’t need to win as often to remain profitable.

For example:

• If you bet on favorites at -200, you need to win 67% of the time just to break even.
• If you bet on underdogs at +200, you only need to win 33% of the time to break even.

This means that even if you lose more bets than you win, you can still be profitable over time if you’re picking the right underdogs.

Market Inefficiencies Favor Underdogs

Sportsbooks struggle to properly adjust for underdogs in certain situations, leading to mispriced betting lines. This is common in:

• Games with unpredictable outcomes (e.g., divisional matchups, rivalry games)
• New or inexperienced teams (harder for sportsbooks to evaluate)
• Injuries or roster changes that shift the game dynamic

By analyzing these factors, sharp bettors can find underdogs with real chances of winning at inflated odds.

How to Identify the Best Underdog Bets

Not all underdogs offer value, and blindly betting on them can lead to long-term losses. To maximize profits, bettors should focus on key indicators that suggest an underdog has a realistic chance to win or cover the spread. Analyzing team performance, historical trends, and market movement can help pinpoint the right bets.

Look for Strong Defensive Teams

Underdogs with solid defensive units are more likely to cover the spread or pull off outright wins. A strong defense can slow down an elite offense, keep the game close, and increase upset potential.

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Example: A defensive-minded NFL team getting +6.5 points against an offensive powerhouse may have a better shot at covering the spread or even winning outright.

Identify Situational Betting Opportunities

Not all underdogs are created equal. Look for games where the situation favors the underdog, such as.

• Home underdogs in primetime games (motivated by crowd energy)
• Divisional matchups (teams are more familiar with each other, reducing talent gaps)
• Favorites in letdown spots (e.g., a team coming off a huge emotional win might overlook a weaker opponent)

Track Line Movements and Betting Percentages

If heavy public money is backing a favorite, the underdog line may become inflated beyond its true value. Smart bettors watch for:

• Reverse line movement (the line shifts in favor of the underdog despite more bets being placed on the favorite)
• Sharp money backing the underdog (professional bettors moving the odds)

If the betting percentage is heavily on the favorite but the line isn’t moving, it might be a sign that sharp money is on the underdog.

Consider Coaching and Game Plan Factors

Some teams match up well against better opponents due to coaching strategy, playing style, or historical success. Coaches who excel at game planning for big matchups can make underdogs far more competitive than expected.

Example: In college football, an underdog team with an elite running game can keep the ball away from a high-powered offense, shortening the game and increasing upset chances.

Profitable Strategies for Betting on Underdogs

A well-structured betting strategy is essential when wagering on underdogs. While high payouts are tempting, a disciplined approach ensures consistency and long-term success. Whether betting against the spread, targeting moneyline underdogs, or using parlays strategically, each method has its advantages.

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Bet the Spread for Consistency

Betting underdogs against the spread (ATS) is often a safer and more consistent way to profit. Even if an underdog doesn’t win outright, they can cover the spread and cash your ticket.

For example, if a +7 underdog loses by 6 points, they still cover the spread, meaning your bet is a winner. Over the course of a season, backing underdogs ATS can yield steady returns.

Take Advantage of Moneyline Underdogs in Close Matchups

Not all underdogs are extreme long shots. Sometimes, small underdogs (+120 to +180 range) offer the best value. These teams have a realistic shot at winning outright, providing higher payouts than just betting the spread.

Use Parlay and Round Robin Bets with Small Underdogs

Parlaying two or three small underdogs together can significantly boost payouts while maintaining a reasonable risk level. A round-robin strategy allows you to cover different combinations of underdogs, giving you multiple chances to profit even if one selection loses.

Look for Teams with Momentum

Underdogs coming off big wins or multiple covers may carry momentum into the next game. If an underdog has been outperforming expectations, sportsbooks might undervalue them, providing an edge for sharp bettors.

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Common Mistakes to Avoid When Betting Underdogs

Even experienced bettors make mistakes when it comes to underdog betting. Some place wagers based on emotion rather than data, while others ignore important variables like injuries, fatigue, and public betting trends. Avoiding these common pitfalls can significantly improve betting performance.

Betting on Every Underdog

Not all underdogs provide value. Just because a team has high odds doesn’t mean it’s a smart bet. Always look for favorable matchups, trends, and market inefficiencies before making a wager.

Ignoring Public Betting Trends

If an underdog is receiving heavy public money, the value may already be gone. Once sportsbooks adjust the odds accordingly, the underdog loses its betting edge.

Overlooking Key Injuries or Rest Disadvantages

If an underdog is missing key players or playing a back-to-back game, they may struggle more than expected. Always check injury reports and scheduling factors before placing a bet.

Final Thoughts on Betting Underdogs for Profitability

While underdog betting is riskier than backing favorites, a smart and disciplined approach can make it highly profitable. Sportsbooks often overvalue favorites and undervalue underdogs, creating opportunities for sharp bettors to exploit mispriced odds.

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By focusing on defensive teams, situational trends, line movements, and sharp money indicators, you can consistently identify underdogs with real chances of winning or covering the spread. Betting the right underdogs, rather than blindly wagering on every big-money line play, is key to long-term success.

Ultimately, the best betting strategy is one that takes advantage of market inefficiencies and hidden value. If approached carefully, underdog betting can be one of the most profitable and rewarding methods in sports betting.