Champions League Round of 16 Odds & Predictions: First Leg Betting Guide

After the UCL playoffs and the draw a couple of weeks ago, Champions League soccer is back to the best phase. The last 16 teams are playing for the trophy, with no room for mistakes from now on. The Champions League round of 16 odds are live now with the matches taking place on Tuesday and Wednesday.

With some high-profile matches on the slate, key analysis of different strategies and betting angles are important. We’ll dive into previews for all the upcoming matches below, which should help Canadian bettors find the best betting value beyond standard 1×2 markets regarding the first leg fixtures.

Champions League Betting Predictions Tuesday, March 10

The first four matches on Tuesday feature big names against underdogs. Some teams are positioned strongly as favorites, others offer better value when you take a look at BetPlays’ Champions League Round of 16 odds.

There’s plenty of value hiding in other markets beyond the traditional ones. Let’s take a look at the top Champions League betting predictions starting with Tuesday’s matches first.

Galatasaray vs Liverpool

Galatasaray and Liverpool open up the slate on Tuesday, meeting in Istanbul where fireworks are always expected. If anyone doubts Galatasaray, they should look at the Juventus thrashing here just around a month ago. Galatasaray won that duel 5-2, and it typically does well in first leg fixtures at home.

Liverpool is not Juventus, with its full focus shifting on the Champions League after falling behind in the Premier League title race. The Reds are heavy favorites for this match and in our Champions League betting predictions.

This season, the teams have already met once at this stadium, a match that Galatasaray won 1-0. But this is a different stage of the competition, and the RAMS Park atmosphere is always hostile. Early bookings are a possibility looking beyond standard 1×2 markets. Over 4.5 total match cards is a good pick, as this is expected to be a physical match. Galatasaray will work hard to disrupt Liverpool’s rhythm, with its fiery fans making the stadium buzz.

Atalanta vs Bayern Munich

Atalanta got to the round of 16 with an inspiring win at home, after being down two goals to Borussia Dortmund in the first leg of the CL playoffs. The team showed its resilience and spirit once more, and will be hoping for another spirited display against Bayern Munich.

Bayern has been flying high in the Bundesliga this season. However, lingering defensive issues may be a chance for Atalanta’s pressing. The logical pick is both teams to score, as Bayern’s Champions League Round of 16 odds don’t justify a bet. A mix of over 2.5 goals with both teams to score is the logical play in a match that may end up chaotic and with plenty of goals.

Atlético Madrid vs Tottenham Hotspur

Atletico Madrid are most likely out of the La Liga title race unless a miracle happens. Diego Simeone’s team is aiming higher than last season, where it exited right at this stage. The hosts are favorites for this match, but considering Tottenham’s European form, looking beyond the English team might be a mistake.

Goals are expected on both sides, but so are cards. This betting market offers much value in a match which is expected to be physical. The visitors will most likely have trouble with Atletico’s lightning-quick counter-attacks, which might lead to bookings. Because of this and the low value in the 1×2 betting markets, placing wagers on over 2.5 cards is a good option.

Player prop bets offer value, too, with both Ademola Lookman and Antoine Griezzman looking to score. Atletico opened the scoring in 7 out of its last 8 UCL matches, and that’s something to consider as well.

Newcastle United vs Barcelona

Newcastle United may have breezed against Qarabag in the playoffs, but it’s facing a much sterner test against La Liga reigning champion Barcelona. The Blaugrana has had its share of ups and downs this season. However, Hansi Flick’s squad has shown resilience just like last year, turning its fortunes in La Liga and the Champions League recently.

The teams met here in the league phase, a match that Barcelona won 1-2 thanks to a Marcus Rashford double. Barcelona’s high defensive line has been a problem this year, and Newcastle will be looking to exploit it. The hosts have blistering transition speed at home, with St. James’ Park being historically hostile for visitors.

Barcelona will have its work cut out for sure. The moneyline market offers slight value, but player prop bets might work better here. Anthony Gordon has scored 10 UCL goals this year, and will be looking to add to his tally. Lamine Yamal and Raphinha are natural picks for goalscorers. Canadian bettors can look toward over/under goals markets as well, or, for something more valuable, look at the shots on target metric.

Backing Lamal to produce over 2.5 shots on target (over 3 in his 6 apparencies so far) will be the center of many Newcastle vs Barcelona predictions. Live betting makes sense as well, especially if the underdog scores early.

Champions League Round of 16 Odds and Predictions Wednesday, March 11

Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal

Bayer Leverkusen got through the playoffs after a 0-2 win against Olympiacos in Athens, and a goalless draw at home. It was then handed down one of the most difficult opponents for the Round of 16, an Arsenal team that’s often seen as the favorite to win the trophy this season.

Despite playing away, Arsenal is a heavy favorite. It has met Bayer once in recent years, when it won 4-1 at home in 2024. Both managers seem to prioritize control and a strong midfield structure. The opening 45 minutes will most likely be a tactical chess match, so a high number of goals is unlikely.

Bettors who believe Bayer has a shot at home can back Leverkusen up for profit. The better option is to look at markets such as under 1 goal in the first half. Arsenal’s strong defense has seen the team concede only 0.5 goals per match. The under 2.5 goals over/under goals market has landed in 5 of Leverkusen’s 7 matches this season, suggesting a low-scoring affair.

Bodø/Glimt vs Sporting CP

If there’s one hit in this season’s Champions League, it’s Bodø/Glimt. The Norwegian team has shocked Manchester City and Atletico Madrid in the league phase, while handing down last year’s finalist Inter a tough 5-2 loss over two playoff legs.

Bodø/Glimt still hasn’t started its season in Norway, and that rest obviously helps the team. This makes it a dangerous opponent in a tie where Bodø has strong chances of success.

With the freezing conditions in Aspmyra Stadion, Sporting CP will struggle with fatigue, especially in the later half. Both teams are expected to score, so looking into the BTTS 2^nd half market is a solid option for this match.

Paris Saint-Germain vs Chelsea

Chelsea has had a mixed season, releasing manager Enzo Maresca early from his contract due to the team’s ups and downs. Regardless, the former European champion has managed to succeed in Europe, where it got an unfavorable tie against PSG.

The first leg is played at Parc des Princes, putting even more pressure on Rosenior’s team. Chelsea has been struggling with defensive transactions in wide areas. Paris will be looking to capitalize on that and score goals in both halves. Luis Enrique’s team is also looking for a major win in the first tie, not leaving everything to chance away next week.

PSG’s moneyline odds don’t offer loads of value, and a Chelsea win away is almost impossible. The French team is coming off a shock loss to Monaco, and has struggled to keep a clean sheet in the UCL.  Chelsea is coming off two wins in a row in the Premier League and FA Cup, both of which has seen the squad score 4 goals.

This suggests an open game with goals on both sides. PSG is expected to dominate possession and find the net. Chelsea’s counter-attacking proficiency makes a clean sheet an afterthought, so BTTS it is. Our PSG vs Chelsea betting tips also suggest looking at corners. Backing PSG -1.5 team corners is also a good idea, as the Blues tend to concede on wide possessions against elite speed and goalscoring-proficient teams.

Real Madrid vs Manchester City

The Last 16 in the CL this year pit two elite teams against each other once again. This is the 5^th time in a row that these teams meet in the elimination stages, and Los Blancos will be looking to take advantage of playing home first.

The Real Madrid vs Man City odds are not as close to call as some bettors might think. City enters the match as a favorite, and it does tend to dictate early possession on the road. Real is always looking to absorb pressure before countering, so under 1.0 first half Asian goal line is a possibility.

Looking beyond the moneyline, goals on both sides are a given. Many will say both teams will score in both halves, which offers even more value. Real is missing a key player in Kylian Mbappe, so Vini Jr. will lead the line. With both teams looking vulnerable defensively but also possessing elite goalscoring talent, over 3.5 goals is a strong choice.

Best Accumulator Bet for the Round of 16

Individual outcomes in this stage of the Champions League are notoriously volatile. This means that combining high-probability tactical trends into a single accumulator offers a strategic way to capitalize in first leg fixtures.

This parlay selects high-value game scripts, pairing them with the top BetPlays Champions League Round of 16 odds. Together with our Champions League betting predictions for each match, the four-leg parlay focuses on more than just the moneyline, providing better value. As always, bet responsibly and do your research before placing wagers on the CL Round of 16.